Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
